As Madhya Pradesh edges closer to crucial Rajya Sabha elections, the political arithmetic has taken a dramatic turn, placing the Congress party on increasingly shaky ground. Three Rajya Sabha seats from the state are set to fall vacant, with elections expected in April-May. In the 230-member Assembly, each seat requires the support of 58 MLAs.
The BJP, commanding a strength of over 165 MLAs, is firmly positioned to secure two seats without any trouble. The real battle is over the third seat, where the Congress finds its position growing more precarious by the day.
On paper, the Congress has 65 MLAs. However, the effective count has dropped to 63. Bina MLA Nirmala Sapre faces disqualification proceedings under the anti-defection law, while Vijaypur MLA Mukesh Malhotra, despite receiving relief from the Supreme Court on his disqualification, remains barred from voting. This leaves the Congress with a wafer-thin cushion of just five surplus votes above the required 58.
The resignation of Deputy Leader of Opposition Hemant Katare, officially attributed to family reasons, has added another layer of intrigue. Katare has denied any political rift, but speculation about him switching sides is rife.
Adding to the partys woes, Congress MLA Abhijit Shah recently appeared at a Hindu conference linked to RSS circles, where he was felicitated on stage. Fellow party legislator Bhairo Singh Parihar had earlier publicly stated he remains associated with the RSS despite being in the Congress, deepening unease within party ranks.
The BJP is openly playing on these fears. BJP MLA Mohan Singh Rathore has taken digs at the Congress track record of managing its legislators, suggesting that the saffron party clinching a third seat would not be a surprise.
Complicating the picture further, the Bharat Adivasi Party lone MLA Kamleshwar Dodiyar has expressed intent to field a candidate, arguing that tribal representation should not remain confined to the two major parties.
Within the Congress, consensus on a candidate is still evolving. State President Jitu Patwari has indicated that veteran leader Digvijaya Singh would be a strong contender, though Singh himself has said he is not keen on a third Rajya Sabha term. Recent Rajya Sabha elections in Haryana and Odisha, which saw unexpected cross-voting and absentee MLAs altering outcomes, have only deepened Congress anxiety about holding its sole assured seat in the state.
