Fuel Crisis: Brazil's ANP Declares "Exceptional Risk" as Imports Plunge 60%

Brazil Faces Fuel Supply Crisis

Brazil's ANP (National Petroleum Agency) declared on Friday (March 20) that the country's fuel market is in an "exceptional risk situation", issuing a technical note justifying emergency measures to boost supply.

In the first 17 days of March, imported fuel volumes dropped nearly 60% compared to the same period last year. Brazil depends on imports for roughly 30% of diesel consumption and 10% of gasoline consumption.

Iran War Pressures Global Markets

The Middle East conflict has drastically raised oil barrel prices, making imported diesel economically unviable. According to the ANP, "the increase in international prices, combined with logistical risks in the Gulf region, reduced the economic competitiveness of imported diesel and shifted greater demand pressure onto domestic production."

Shortages have already driven prices up even before Petrobras adjustments. Diesel at the pump now averages R$6.80 per liter (~US$1.20), with a R$2.68 per liter gap between Petrobras prices and import parity.

New Finance Minister Takes Over Amid Turmoil

Dario Durigan was named the new Finance Minister on Friday, replacing Fernando Haddad, who resigned to run for governor of São Paulo state. In his first statements, Durigan pledged to keep the war's impact on Brazilians "as minimal as possible."

Government's Emergency Package

The federal government implemented several crisis measures:

• Federal tax exemption on diesel
• R$0.32 per liter subsidy for distributors selling below a government-set price ceiling
• ANP ordered Petrobras to resume fuel auctions canceled earlier this week
• Authorization to tap regulatory reserves held by refineries and distributors
• Mandatory monitoring — major distributors Ipiranga, Raízen, and Vibra given 48 hours to justify abrupt price hikes

Price Ceilings and Subsidy Tables

The government published price ceilings required to qualify for the subsidy. For imported diesel, values range from R$5.294/liter (Southeast) to R$5.510/liter (Northeast). For domestically produced diesel, from R$3.509/liter (Northeast) to R$3.864/liter (Central-West).

Petrobras joined the subsidy program, but its room for further price increases is limited — its selling prices at Paulínia already hover around R$3.60/liter, close to the domestic diesel ceiling for the Southeast.

Analysis: Are These Measures Enough?

Industry experts assess the government's actions have limited effect. The R$0.32 subsidy is minuscule against the R$2.68/liter gap. Six sector associations warned that "price uncertainties create supply shortage risks." Normalization requires aligning domestic and international prices — something the government avoids to shield consumers from the full impact.

Petrobras claims to be operating at maximum capacity and supplying 15% above contracted volumes, but its strategy of channeling imported fuel into higher-priced auctions has created friction with distributors, worsening the perception of scarcity across multiple regions.